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September 29, 2020, 09:11:33 PM
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www.altyfans.co.uk  |  General Category  |  Non Altrincham FC Talk  |  COVID-19 and associated discussion « previous next »
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Author Topic: COVID-19 and associated discussion  (Read 459 times)
Hugh
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« Reply #15 on: Yesterday at 01:36:55 AM »

Apparently there was a radio interview with Raab where he appeared surprised when told that the number of c.v. deaths for healthy people under 60 was 307! Quite a large per centage of the population presumably.

Funnily enough in my student days (as a cyclist angry at the behaviour of some motorists) I was somewhat in favour of banning cars, and limiting motor vehicles to about 8mph! So I understand how people can lose sight of the bigger picture when focusing too narrowly on on issue.

I hope to provide a fuller update tomorrow, and hope that things have sorted themselves out on the first team section, and that no one thought I was having a go at the ladies team or Brian Flynn - I haven't checked yet!
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Hugh
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« Reply #16 on: Yesterday at 11:55:05 PM »

A day late with my update this week, but I will follow a similar format - the Sunday to Saturday deaths for the UK, and the increase from last Sunday to this Sunday for other countries( as they may not update daily in the same way). I will also give what their daily death rate would be equivalent to in the UK (ie adjusted for population)

Just briefly, the idea of this is to try and get an idea of what approaches work, and where we might be headed, as well as give a bit of balance to some of the fear-mongering from the government and media (and many people are genuinely scared) . In answer to Cheshire Cat, I would put it the other way round - how many deaths (or cases if you're New Zealand) justify serious curtailing of basic freedoms (including a possible unprecedented peacetime cancellation of the season)? As JD pointed out, there is quite serious collateral damage from lockdowns, and they really should have historians and economists on Sage to enable a more balanced, holistic approach.

This week, I will start with the UK figures.

The UK saw 212 deaths reported last week, or 30/day, compared to 163 last week and 74 the week before that, so a slowing rate of increase. Just to give an idea of the "steep upward curve" we are on, here are the figures for the last 11 days, starting with Friday the 18th:
Friday - 27; Saturday - 54; Sunday - 18; Monday - 11; Tuesday - 37; Wednesday - 37; Thursday - 40; Friday - 34;Saturday - 35; Sunday - 17; Monday - 13.
It is worth pointing out also in the wake of the appalling scenes of uni freshers in Manchester who are virtual prisoners in their cramped accommodation, that' last I heard, only 3 people in the 15-18 age group (who were all seriously ill) have died of this cv, and no teachers are reported to have died from being infected by their pupils. Is this acceptable?

Global deaths were 5367/day, equivalent to 47/day in the UK. This is a marginal increase on last week, and similar to previous weeks, so clearly not spiralling out of control.

Next we move on to lockdown fanatics Peru, with 893 deaths last week, equivalent to 262/day in the UK. Whatever they're doing, it's not working!

Let's compare them to their more laissez-faire neighbours Brazil. They have had 749 deaths/day, equivalent to 239/day in the UK. So still high, but less than Peru, who would appear to be gaining little benefit from their draconian and ruinously expensive measures.

Moving on to Europe now, and a look at where we are allegedly headed. France saw 442 deaths, equivalent to 66/day in the UK. This represents a modest increase on their 375 deaths for the previous week, and 304 the week before that - a slowing rate of increase.

Spain, which had a particularly strict lockdown, suffered 737 deaths last week, equivalent to 153/day in the UK. So even lockdown idiots Spain are some way short of "over 200 deaths per day" at the moment, and are said to be already peaking.

Next on to two European countries with contrasting approaches but similar populations. Firstly Belgium, perhaps the most fanatical of lockdown zealots in Europe, saw 30 deaths total for the week,
equivalent to 25/day in the UK.

And finally, our friends in "disaster zone" Sweden, who sailed on serenely with 15 deaths, equivalent to 14/day in the UK - ie the number of deaths reported at the time South Shields played FC United in front of over 3,000, which therefore appears to be an acceptable number, at any rate to the authorities!

So, it would appear from thiese official figures that there are no great benefits from draconian lockdown restrictions, and the "over 200 deaths per day" for the UK may not be reached.

What I particularly want from the authorities is a clear idea of their end game, and when that might be reached. What we can say for certain is that if countries like New Zealand were to maintain a minimal number of cases, it would mean shutting themselves off from other countries which have many more cases, a dsurely unsustainable approach.

And if we were to listen to economists and historians, they could surely paint as scary a picture or worse than professor pantsdown - after all, we know what happened with the depression of the 1930's, and after the 2008 financial crisis. Crashing the economy never ends well!
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