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+ Altyfans.co.uk - Altrincham Football Club Fans Forum » General Category » Non Altrincham FC Talk
 COVID-19 and associated discussion
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Author Topic: COVID-19 and associated discussion  (Read 4094 times)

Hugh

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Re: COVID-19 and associated discussion
« Reply #30 on: October 27, 2020, 11:28:15 PM »

A lot of kids are picked up from school by their grandparents and then driven home. Stand outside any primary school and you can see it for yourself.

Schoolchildren Seem Unlikely to Fuel Coronavirus Surges - the New York Times, October 22

Thought you might like to know.

Anyhow, if it is true that no teacher has died (anywhere) after being infected by her pupils, and if only a tiny number of healthy people under 60 have died from cv, it is reasonable to suppose there is some truth in this headline, and that quite a lot of 60 year old grandparents will not consider themselves to be particularly vulnerable.
« Last Edit: October 28, 2020, 01:28:23 AM by Hugh »
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Hugh

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Re: COVID-19 and associated discussion
« Reply #31 on: October 28, 2020, 01:27:19 AM »

A day late this week, and relatively short. Just briefly, I would say that, besides cv mortality rates, I would consider the following information useful:
Total daily respiratory deaths; total daily deaths; the corresponding information for previous years; breakdowns by country and regions of cv mortality now compared to the Spring outbreak (ie is there evidence of herd immunity). Though I suspect I will have to do a bit of digging to get this information.
 Also, in line with my longstanding position, I would urge people towards good nutrition and supplements as a way of combatting many diseases (including this virus), eg by having plenty of fresh fruit and vegetables (and water), and high strength supplements of nutrients such as vitamins C and D3.

This week, I will list the places in order from highest mortality to lowest for easier comparison. Furthermore, I hope to look at additional changes to the format next week.

With the worst death rate this week are lockdown covidiots Belgium, whose 49 deaths/ day are equivalent to 289 deaths/day in the UK. It would appear they are some way off herd immunity.

Second worst are fellow lockdown zealots Spain, whose daily deaths of 140 equate to 203/day in the UK. This is another increase after briefly falling, and if we see cv rising in a similar way to other respiratory diseases in the winter months, there could still be further rises, although this is by no means certain.

Then follows France, with 183/ day, equivalent to 193 deaths/day in the UK. This is also a substantial rise on last week.

In fourth place (out of eight) is the "world beating" United Kingdom, with 166 deaths/day. Sadly it does not look like peaking quite yet, though whether it is justification for trashing our rights and our economy is another matter, and the exit plan still looks hazy at best. It looks like the authorities' prediction of 200 deaths/day could be an underestimate - although numbers remain well below the April peak.

Next is Brazil with 435 deaths/day, equivalent to 139 deaths/day in the UK, and another substantial drop. Could it be that the politician who suggested Winter weather as a factor was on to something?

Just ahead of them are neighbours and lockdown zealots Peru, with 56 deaths/day, equivalent to 115 deaths/day in the UK, and also down on last week. Although they still have a very high total death rate.

Much lower still is the global death rate of 5,644/day, equivalent to 49 deaths/day in the UK, and up on last week, though still well within the bounds of previous weeks.

The winners, naturally, are Sweden. They seem to have been adjusting their figures down again, but I think they had 4 deaths/day last week, equivalent to 24 deaths/day in the UK. And don't forget, they ended restrictions on over 70's last week, and this in the name of public health rather than for political reasons. All this with limited measures well short of the lockdown idiots in other countries, so that they now enjoy relative normality, and apparently a degree of herd immunity.
« Last Edit: October 28, 2020, 01:43:15 AM by Hugh »
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cheshire cat

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Re: COVID-19 and associated discussion
« Reply #32 on: October 28, 2020, 06:10:52 PM »

A lot of kids are picked up from school by their grandparents and then driven home. Stand outside any primary school and you can see it for yourself.

Schoolchildren Seem Unlikely to Fuel Coronavirus Surges - the New York Times, October 22

Thought you might like to know.

Anyhow, if it is true that no teacher has died (anywhere) after being infected by her pupils, and if only a tiny number of healthy people under 60 have died from cv, it is reasonable to suppose there is some truth in this headline, and that quite a lot of 60 year old grandparents will not consider themselves to be particularly vulnerable.

I'm sure that a lot of 60 year old people don't consider themselves to be vulnerable, me included, hopefully we won't be. There may well be some truth in the headline because it very carefully uses the words "seems unlikely" Not "is unlikely" or "is highly unlikely" They're not very confident are they?

You have probably noticed, but I'd like to point out that our infection rates are still rising sharply, as they are in most of the north of the country. There's a two to three week lag for corresponding deaths so there's no chance whatsoever of peak deaths being reached by the end of next week. If the Tier 3 restrictions have the desired effect perhaps we will see some change in the infection rate but I have my doubts simply because there is still plenty of interaction going on whether people are following the rules or not.

The NHS are better equipped to help people this time around. They know what practices and drugs have a positive effect and so for the time being at least more people are surviving. This could all change of course as they become bed blockers and the numbers of available beds hits rock bottom.

Much as I miss not being there I'm happy to watch the matches being streamed for the time being.

One thing that I think ought to be happening that I believe isn't is looking at the cost of all this both in economic terms and in damage to health as a result of too much focus on Covid. At the end of the day there is going to be a hefty bill to pay. I think Boris is desperate to get to the New Year and a vaccine to become available.
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Hugh

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Re: COVID-19 and associated discussion
« Reply #33 on: October 29, 2020, 08:06:41 PM »


"Professor Wendy Barclay, a SAGE member...said none of the current restrictions appeared to be having a significant impact on the spread of the virus" I think your doubts could be right! It will be interesting to see what happens in two weeks...
For what it's worth, my source cites data from gov.uk, concluding that there has been "no sign of further growth" in UK daily positive tests for over a week (as of yesterday), even allowing for reporting delays", and that hospital admissions are "flat since October 21st", with hospital deaths "below the 5 year average in week 42". As I have said, Sweden's cv deaths remain low, but if our failure to reach a purported herd immunity level, as seems to have happened in Sweden, is a factor, and if people's immune systems have been weakened by a lack of the usual social interaction (as I have long feared), then it is likely enough that hospital deaths could end up worse than average. In any case, the main justification for lockdowns was to stop hospitals being overwhelmed, and there are questions to be asked over why the number of intensive care beds in the UK lags behind that of other countries (ie making such an overwhelming more likely), and why, even in a normal year, hospitals have been badly stretched in recent times. More money, or fundamental changes (or both)? Lessons must be learnt.

They definitely need economists and historians on SAGE. The economy was looking a bit shaky even before March, and if there are cast iron rules of history about economic crises, for example, these should be taken into account.

 My newspaper is suggesting that a safe effective vaccine could become widely available by March, though another cites a study saying that any vaccines may need to be taken twice a year. A glaring omission in  the study was the role played by T-cell immunity. Sources from Bill Gates' mates at Imperial College London were cited. Just saying, like...
« Last Edit: October 29, 2020, 09:43:34 PM by Hugh »
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cheshire cat

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Re: COVID-19 and associated discussion
« Reply #34 on: October 29, 2020, 10:31:56 PM »


"For what it's worth, my source cites data from gov.uk, concluding that there has been "no sign of further growth" in UK daily positive tests for over a week (as of yesterday), even allowing for reporting delays",


That's a staggering statement. It's completely at odds with the stats the government is publishing. Can you share the source?
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rorysgrandad

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Re: COVID-19 and associated discussion
« Reply #35 on: October 31, 2020, 11:05:10 PM »

Just a quick observation on today’s announcement by the PM.
If this DEADLY virus requires action to prevent widespread devastation, why are we waiting until Thursday to introduce the measures?
WILL ANYONE STILL BE ALIVE BY THEN?

Concerned of Timperley.
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Hugh

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Re: COVID-19 and associated discussion
« Reply #36 on: October 31, 2020, 11:51:48 PM »

I understand the authorities are now predicting a peak of 500 UK cv deaths/day (less than half of April's worst week) but remaining at that level for months. So if the present pattern continues that suggests a peak maybe on Tuesday week -,  just after the latest pointless lockdown starts (to "save Christmas", just in case anyone still thought this was about "the science" - a courtesy that notoriously wasn't extended to Muslims earlier this year). So at any rate the authorities have covered themselves.

Meanwhile, in Sweden (where all restrictions have been removed from over 70's), cv deaths predictably remain low, whilst in the "world beating" UK, the elderly continue to be prevented from seeing their relatives in their final days. An absolute disgrace, and I hope people will be held to account for this. You know, the authorities really should send that fact finding mission to Sweden.
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Hugh

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Re: COVID-19 and associated discussion
« Reply #37 on: November 01, 2020, 12:11:15 AM »


"For what it's worth, my source cites data from gov.uk, concluding that there has been "no sign of further growth" in UK daily positive tests for over a week (as of yesterday), even allowing for reporting delays",


That's a staggering statement. It's completely at odds with the stats the government is publishing. Can you share the source?


https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/cases

I think it is referring to the second graph on this page.

It's worth remembering that politicians are expert at telling "the truth" - not actual lies, but selected facts that support their argument but may give a misleading picture. Io be fair, plenty of people besides politicians may fall into this trap, that's why it is important to be indefatigable in going after the real truth, why I am tracking data from countries like Sweden and France, checkable data to see if things stack up.
« Last Edit: November 01, 2020, 12:34:23 AM by Hugh »
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Hugh

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Re: COVID-19 and associated discussion
« Reply #38 on: November 01, 2020, 12:27:30 AM »

Just a quick observation on today’s announcement by the PM.
If this DEADLY virus requires action to prevent widespread devastation, why are we waiting until Thursday to introduce the measures?
WILL ANYONE STILL BE ALIVE BY THEN?

Concerned of Timperley.

Doubtless this delay is 100 percent supported by "the science".  And I dare say further lives can be saved if you switch allegiance to Barnton for the duration of a Cheshire Senior Cup tie, though I doubt this will take place now - to save lives obviously, and never mind all the deaths from stress that will be caused by  these countless assaults on our liberty.
« Last Edit: November 01, 2020, 12:37:21 AM by Hugh »
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cheshire cat

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Re: COVID-19 and associated discussion
« Reply #39 on: November 01, 2020, 01:04:51 PM »

The delay is because the power to make law without it passing through parliament was only granted for a finite period of time and that time has now expired.

So the proposals announced yesterday have to be voted on and labour have announced they will provide their backing. Not suprising really because they wanted it to happen a month ago
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cheshire cat

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Re: COVID-19 and associated discussion
« Reply #40 on: November 01, 2020, 01:24:28 PM »

Thanks for the link Hugh. I will keep an eye on that chart.

Pure speculation on my part but I can only think that the medics think they know how many of those 20,000 cases translate into hospital attendees and then icu bed occupants based on historical data. They also know what the time lag is.

Add in the fact that the Health Service is better at keeping people alive now but they are likely to need a bed for longer because they don't end up in the mortuary and you can start to see why there is likely to be increasing pressure on bed space.

I think we are more akin to France rather than Sweden. The population density just isn't there in Sweden. Even in Stockholm there's a lot more space which will help to keep infection rates at a level that can be coped with.
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Hugh

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Re: COVID-19 and associated discussion
« Reply #41 on: November 01, 2020, 09:18:32 PM »

Probably are more like France in some ways. Still, I seem to remember that when Sweden's course of action was fed into the infamous Imperial College London computer model, it predicted many more deaths than have actually transpired. There is a suspicion that the goalposts have been moved after the event. Also, if different rules make a difference, it seems odd that, as I understand, there is a large urban area straddling the borders of Sweden and one of its neighbours and yet the cv infection fatality rates are not very different across the border.

Oh well, we keep buggering on, keep asking questions etc. I dare say David James would love all this ("yes it was a clean sheet, but did I have any real saves to make?")
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Hugh

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Re: COVID-19 and associated discussion
« Reply #42 on: November 03, 2020, 11:42:46 PM »

Have to post full update tomorrow (lousy 12h shifts) but briefly, cv deaths seem to be levelling off a bit. Try telling that to the lemmings in Westminster!
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Hugh

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Re: COVID-19 and associated discussion
« Reply #43 on: November 05, 2020, 02:01:47 AM »

4000/day is nonsense, they used old data and a dodgy cut off point. Never happen.

"We do not have hospitals full of respiratory patients to any extent greater than usual for November".  - Dr Mike Yeadon. Further info welcome - if it's not being withheld!

I suspect mass testing data is also unreliable, surprisingly enough. Also including total deaths UK equivalent this week.

Today's deaths suspiciously high in the UK - wednesday normally lower than tuesday

Belgium 543/day, 68126 total uk equivalent. their strict lockdown means high deaths now, high deaths total

France - 336/day, 38538 total uk equivalent. both france and belgium saw big increases on last week.

then "world beating" uk with 259/day,46555 total.

then spain, 234/day, 52166 total uk equivalents.a total worse than us from a lockdown zealot, but daily deaths only slightly up.

Brazil - 138/day, 51084 uk equivalent. slightly less deaths than last week.

peru stay ahead of them with  ;)112/day, 70864 total uk equivalent. a slight decrease on last wee, but their death rate is the worst, from the worst lockdown zealots.

the global rate finally moved up significantly as the majority of the world's population moves towards winter, to 59/day uk equivalent (49 last week), total deaths equivalent to 10492, still lower than others.

Swweden's figures jumped about but may be 9/day, uk equivalent, total 39,915 uk equivalent, Whilst sweden' total rate is low, their deaths appear to have jumped alarmingly so far this week. we'll see if they stay ahead of other countries...
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cheshire cat

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Re: COVID-19 and associated discussion
« Reply #44 on: November 06, 2020, 07:25:01 PM »

Its good to see Traffords figures subsiding. If we can keep it up for another three weeks we might not end up being put back in Tier 3.
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 COVID-19 and associated discussion