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 COVID-19 and associated discussion
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Author Topic: COVID-19 and associated discussion  (Read 4096 times)

RageAgainstTheFirstTeam

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Re: COVID-19 and associated discussion
« Reply #45 on: November 07, 2020, 01:17:01 PM »

May interest you to know that Ross County played a Scottish Prem game in front of 300 home fans last night.
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Hugh

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Re: COVID-19 and associated discussion
« Reply #46 on: November 07, 2020, 07:16:44 PM »

Yes, I heard they were letting 300 in - the magic of Ross-shire! I suspect I would have struggled to get a ticket though (even if I lived there) - despite Dingwall having about half the population of Lymm! A bit shocked at the results of my poll - fully half expecting it to be next season before we can attend our matches, which would be a disaster. Of course it's only supposition at the moment that there'll be a game changing vaccine by March. Much better looking at other options for now. Learning to live with it? targeted protection? Hasn't done Sweden, South Dakota etc. any harm anyway.
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Hugh

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Re: COVID-19 and associated discussion
« Reply #47 on: November 07, 2020, 07:20:58 PM »

Shouldn't be for all Gtr Manchester anyway (a made up area which only by chance didn't include places like Wilmslow). It should be at least borough level, and I would go further - North and South Trafford perhaps? And after all, if they had the pre-74 government areas, what would they have done?
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RageAgainstTheFirstTeam

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Re: COVID-19 and associated discussion
« Reply #48 on: November 07, 2020, 07:40:01 PM »

Yes, I heard they were letting 300 in - the magic of Ross-shire! I suspect I would have struggled to get a ticket though (even if I lived there) - despite Dingwall having about half the population of Lymm! A bit shocked at the results of my poll - fully half expecting it to be next season before we can attend our matches, which would be a disaster. Of course it's only supposition at the moment that there'll be a game changing vaccine by March. Much better looking at other options for now. Learning to live with it? targeted protection? Hasn't done Sweden, South Dakota etc. any harm anyway.

I don't think a complete ban on attendees at football matches makes sense, but what you've said there is patently untrue. The Dakotas are enduring an absolutely horrific surge. To quote Vox; "North and South Dakota now have four to five times the weekly (US) average for daily new coronavirus cases per 100,000 people."

Meanwhile Sweden, who you consistently hold up as a positive example in this thread, has not done well at all, especially in comparison to its Scandinavian neighbours. As Time magazine tells us "As of Oct. 18, Sweden’s per-capita death rate—58.6 per 100,000 people—was among the highest in the world. And from early September to early October, average daily cases nationwide rose by 173%, with particularly dramatic increases in cities such as Stockholm and Uppsala."

Or as the British Medical Journal said back in September; "Compared with its neighbours Sweden has been unsuccessful in preventing deaths—Finland, for example, has had 343 deaths, which equals 62 deaths per million population." Essentially, Sweden had a death toll almost 10 times higher than their nearest neighbours.
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rorysgrandad

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Re: COVID-19 and associated discussion
« Reply #49 on: November 07, 2020, 08:05:37 PM »

Shouldn't be for all Gtr Manchester anyway (a made up area which only by chance didn't include places like Wilmslow). It should be at least borough level, and I would go further - North and South Trafford perhaps? And after all, if they had the pre-74 government areas, what would they have done?
The government pre 1974 would have had the same ignorance and prejudices against the North of England as they do now. The present incumbents were unaware Wigan was in Greater Manchester. It doesn't concern them one jot if they get their facts straight. You'll just do as you're told. The covid tests in Liverpool are senseless and wholly unreliable. It'd be cheaper and more accurate to give everyone a new penny and ask them to chose heads or tails. That'd be 50% right. Crazy times.
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Hugh

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Re: COVID-19 and associated discussion
« Reply #50 on: November 07, 2020, 08:19:59 PM »

My prediction of 13 October was that I expected deaths to peak "certainly... within the next four weeks", and "should peak a long way below... 200 deaths/day. The second part is obviously wrong (at least according to the official figures), but then again so is the initial prediction of the authorities of 200 deaths/day by November - it was above this in October, and some way above it by November.

However the second part could prove true. Even if deaths reach 1,000/day, that would still suggest a peak in about two weeks assuming a 50-60 per cent increase per week, as has been seen since 12th September. But will it peak before then? Friday's number had the feel of a peak about it, and indeed, deaths peaked on a Friday in April - Good Friday, appropriately enough, at least according to PHE figures supplied at the time. Also, my source points to figures showing that cv hospital admissions flat-lined from 25th October to 3rd November. See https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/healthcare - first graph. Allowing for a three week lag, that would suggest cv deaths peaking three weeks after 25th October, ie some time around the end of next week, assuming this levelling oof of hospital admissions isn't just a blip.
« Last Edit: November 07, 2020, 09:46:40 PM by Hugh »
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Hugh

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Re: COVID-19 and associated discussion
« Reply #51 on: November 07, 2020, 09:03:49 PM »

Yes, I heard they were letting 300 in - the magic of Ross-shire! I suspect I would have struggled to get a ticket though (even if I lived there) - despite Dingwall having about half the population of Lymm! A bit shocked at the results of my poll - fully half expecting it to be next season before we can attend our matches, which would be a disaster. Of course it's only supposition at the moment that there'll be a game changing vaccine by March. Much better looking at other options for now. Learning to live with it? targeted protection? Hasn't done Sweden, South Dakota etc. any harm anyway.

I don't think a complete ban on attendees at football matches makes sense, but what you've said there is patently untrue. The Dakotas are enduring an absolutely horrific surge. To quote Vox; "North and South Dakota now have four to five times the weekly (US) average for daily new coronavirus cases per 100,000 people."

Meanwhile Sweden, who you consistently hold up as a positive example in this thread, has not done well at all, especially in comparison to its Scandinavian neighbours. As Time magazine tells us "As of Oct. 18, Sweden’s per-capita death rate—58.6 per 100,000 people—was among the highest in the world. And from early September to early October, average daily cases nationwide rose by 173%, with particularly dramatic increases in cities such as Stockholm and Uppsala."

Or as the British Medical Journal said back in September; "Compared with its neighbours Sweden has been unsuccessful in preventing deaths—Finland, for example, has had 343 deaths, which equals 62 deaths per million population." Essentially, Sweden had a death toll almost 10 times higher than their nearest neighbours.

Yes, I did hear something about Scandinavia.

 I mean, we can all cherry pick figures, I dare say I'm guilty of this myself at times. You could count Scotland as an honorary Nordic country (Shetland was Norwegian a few hundred years ago after all) and get a different picture again. My idea though was to present data from countries with different approaches (Brazil and Peru), and from countries which might indicate how we are doing and where we are going (France). I've got to draw the line somewhere or I'll be there all day, and others can say if they think the places chosen are self serving - robust criticisms serve a better understanding of the situation at the end of the day.

Since you mention Scandinavia, this is my understanding from what I remember. Norway has a lower percentage of the population that is elderly than Sweden - ie less deaths (average age for cv deaths, it is worth repeating, is over 80 globally, ie people who were likely to die soon anyway). Norway had a more severe flu season than Sweden last Winter, ie less "dry tinder" likely to die from a Spring bug.
And a large, fairly homogeneous urban area which straddles Sweden and one of its neighbours (I think it is the Oresund region which includes part of Denmark) had seen little difference in cv deaths on different sides of the border, despite differing restrictions, which one would not expect to happen if different restrictions had a big effect on results. I understand there was an issue with high numbers of deaths in Stockholm care homes early in this outbreak, so obviously Sweden did not get everything right. However I would maintain that more broadly, their approach has been vindicated, and has certainly defied the prediction of that computer model. (Professor Ferguson's ICL one)

For me, a key point is that Sweden's death numbers are massively different from what professor pantsdown's notorious computer model would have predicted. It must be emphasized that computer models are fundamentally different from actual science using real time clinical data on the ground (and why are we finding relevant data in the UK is hard to get hold of - or that a Danish study on general use of masks is hard to get published?)

Even if Sweden could have done better on the narrow criterion of cv deaths by locking down, they still might have been justified in their approach. They took a much lower economic hit, and might even have avoided recession if other countries had followed their lead, with the knock-on effect of less cuts. And cuts, as Labour was fond of telling us, cost lives. On a global scale, it is expected that many millions of people will starve, like, to death, because of government lockdowns. Whilst not the only consideration, it absolutely should be a major consideration, as well as the wars etc. that history suggests come from crashing the economy. And the malign changes to politics and culture that come from prolonged use of totalitarian measures.

As for South Dakota, I haven't been following them closely thus far, however, I would assume that their surge - and cv death rates - are less than we are seeing from Europe's worst lockdown idiots Belgium.

And Sweden's cv deaths and death rate continue to compare favourably to countries that I have been following, though obviously I will keep an eye on it.

My position from the start has been that if Sweden is not the disaster that Ferguson predicted then harsh lockdowns were wrong, rather than Sweden having to do better than any particular given country.

Nb I checked, and South Dakota's cv death rate is currently equivalent to 41,420 in the UK. Terrifying. Maybe I'll revise my view when they have a much higher death rate than lockdown maniacs Peru and Belgium.

If you're talking about net harm rather than just one bug which is going round, one could probably argue the approach of Sweden and South Dakota hasn't done them any harm. Anyway, I am arguing that. Maybe I should have been clearer in my previous post, but that's where I'm coming from.

And of course Sweden's death rate would be among the highest in the world wouldn't it? Just not as high as the countries I've been following. As I posted previously, the global death rate is equivalent to 10,492 UK deaths, Sweden's death rate is equivalent to 39,915 UK deaths, and the UK is, of course, worse again. And then there's lockdown nuts Peru...
« Last Edit: November 07, 2020, 10:07:56 PM by Hugh »
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RageAgainstTheFirstTeam

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Re: COVID-19 and associated discussion
« Reply #52 on: November 07, 2020, 09:58:12 PM »

If you want to make the economic argument then that's another matter. But I don't think you can really have a multi page thread where you argue lockdowns don't work, get proved wrong then say "I was only talking about the economy." Come on, that's a bit of a pivot. I'm sure you're arguing in good faith, but I'm a bit irritated that you've deployed a huge strawman to accuse me of cherry picking figures.

Quote
we can all cherry pick figures, I dare say I'm guilty of this myself at times. You could count Scotland as an honorary Nordic country (Shetland was Norwegian a few hundred years ago after all) and get a different picture again.

Well, no. If you called Scotland a Nordic country because part of it was Norwegian a thousand years ago then that would be ridiculous as it doesn't share the important social or demographic traits relevant in this scenario. It's not cherry picking to compare Sweden with its nearest neighbour.

Quote
As for South Dakota, I haven't been following them closely thus far, however, I would assume that their surge - and cvdeath rates - are less than we are seeing from Europe's worst lockdown idiots Belgium.

You assume very wrong. In the last seven days, South Dakota's COVID death rate is nearly eight times that of Belgium's in the same period. (Belgium 93 per million, South Dakota 724 per million). This is also significantly worse than Belgium at its peak.
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Hugh

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Re: COVID-19 and associated discussion
« Reply #53 on: November 07, 2020, 10:33:05 PM »

I haven't been following South Dakota enough to make meaningful judgment on the past week. However, I do know that, according to Worldometer, South Dakota's latest increase in deaths is given as 13, Belgiums's as 377. From thirteen times the population. (377 over 13 is 29, rather more than thirteen.

Yes, I've been proved wrong on some points. The authorities have mostly been proved wrong, and Professor Ferguson has definitely been proved wrong. I am trying to work out what's going on at the end of the day, same as them, so all information and constructive criticism is very much welcome.And regardless of previous predictions, I will categorically state that the 4,000 deaths a day prediction of the authorities is ludicrous, and will never happen, probably not even with serious fiddling of the figures. Worth noting also, that estimates for "Spanish" flu deaths 100 years ago vary widely, and there is likely to be a lack of certainty about the toll from covid-19 as well.

As it happens, my reasons for being sceptical of the strategy of the authorities has long been that Sweden has not been the disaster predicted by Ferguson, and that crashing the economy costs lives, and I accept all responsibility if I have not made this clear from the start of this thread. Anyhow, worth remembering that lockdown fanatics Belgium and Peru have the worst cv death rates among major countries. I don't think this is disputed. I dare say I have modified my argument as fresh data comes in (the scientific method) - a "pivot" if you like. But the jury appears very much still out on lockdowns, and I don't accept that the experience of Finland changes that. And as I say, little difference between the Danish and Swedish sides of Oresund from what I've heard, despite different rules. Like with like...

P.s. thread to end as soon as we're all allowed back into matches at Moss Lane - sometime next season apparently!  :)
« Last Edit: November 08, 2020, 01:26:10 AM by Hugh »
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RageAgainstTheFirstTeam

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Re: COVID-19 and associated discussion
« Reply #54 on: November 08, 2020, 01:01:33 PM »

Keep posting. It's interesting to hear your thoughts on these matters in here. I disagree with you a lot but I think you're coming from a genuine place. That said, we probably have more agreements than we realise. Correct me if I'm wrong but I think we're both of the opinion getting football fans back in (to some degree) would be a good idea and present minimal risk for a start!
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cheshire cat

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Re: COVID-19 and associated discussion
« Reply #55 on: November 08, 2020, 08:37:08 PM »

Minimal risk? That would involve lockout. Acceptable risk is a phrase I can identify with
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Hugh

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Re: COVID-19 and associated discussion
« Reply #56 on: November 09, 2020, 09:31:31 PM »

Belgium and South Dakota

Latest worldometer numbers:

South Dakota - one more death

Belgium - 347 more deaths.

Still not convinced, I'm afraid. Will try and keep an eye on it.

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RageAgainstTheFirstTeam

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Re: COVID-19 and associated discussion
« Reply #57 on: November 09, 2020, 11:34:32 PM »

Belgium and South Dakota

Latest worldometer numbers:

South Dakota - one more death

Belgium - 347 more deaths.

Still not convinced, I'm afraid. Will try and keep an eye on it.

Hugh, you've either wildly misread or misrepresented the figures. The number you quoted for Belgium there is for two days. They had 199 deaths yesterday and 148 today which presumably is where you got your 347 from. The figure for South Dakota isn't "one" and it doesn't say that on Worldometer anywhere. Indeed, the latest daily death tolls it gives are both 13 for November 7th and 8th. They haven't even released today's numbers so you can't compare them. Belgium does indeed have a slightly higher death rate in recent days, although it's not nearly the difference you indicate above.

You talked about cherry picking numbers earlier but you put a lot of stock in figures from very short time frame and compare random countries to one another. Statisticians don't work this way. They look at as much data as possible to get an idea of things. I'm not actually arguing with any of your other points RE economy, personal freedoms, projections. I'm just pointing out that your numbers are dead wrong and the areas you're promoting as doing well are objectively not.
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cheshire cat

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Re: COVID-19 and associated discussion
« Reply #58 on: November 10, 2020, 06:14:14 PM »

Here's some relevant stats. The story so far: Figures from https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

Deaths per million population
Norway52, Denmark 129, Finland 65, Estonia 57, Latvia 55, Sweden 598.
So four times worse than Denmark and ten times worse than the rest.

I think we have to grit our teeth and continue with the current strategy until the vulnerable groups can access a vaccine.
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Hugh

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Re: COVID-19 and associated discussion
« Reply #59 on: November 10, 2020, 11:09:27 PM »

A few points to make before I get into this week's update

A more information becomes available about the recent increases in cv deaths, I will this week list countries in order of their IFR rate for total deaths, rather than in order of deaths for the last week, so we can start to get an idea of whose cv strategy has been successful over all.

I will also continue to monitor the situation in South Dakota, which famously didn't lock down. Today: South Dakota recorded 4 deaths, whilst lockdown fanatics Belgium, with about 13 times the population, recorded 161 deaths. Still not convinced by Belgium,

One of the points I was going to make was that it is becoming clear that it was madness to continue with lockdown restrictions into the summer months. It turns out that in fact Finland (which didn't have a particularly severe lockdown) actually eased their restrictions earlier than other countries - some time in May, so far as I can gather. They were also very well prepared, after various problems with Mother Russia over the years. They now have a low IFR, as has been helpfully pointed out.

As for the disaster of our own second lockdown, it seems that this may have been largely due to NHS staff absenteeism, particularly in the North East, and due in no small part to track and trace contacts,

And finally, as we enter the catastrophe of another "lockdown", I recall that the highest deaths were recorded in April (according to info at the time anyway) 18 days after lockdown on 23rd March - so less than three weeks. I will be watching closely to see how soon deaths peak this time, but, whether last week, this week, or a week or two later (which would mean my prediction of a peak by around today would be wrong), it seems increasingly clear that a peak is coming soon, and very likely at a time which would suggest that lockdown happened once again after infections peaked.

The country with the worst total ifr rate this week (obviously one of the lockdown zealots) is Belgium, with total deaths equivalent to 75,639 in the UK, deaths last week equivalent to 1,073/day.

Next highest, the other lockdown fans, is Peru, with deaths equivalent to 71,611 (UK) and last week equivalent to 107/day as they move into their Summer.

Then follows Spain, who also locked down too hard, with total deaths equivalent to 56,432 (UK) and daily deaths last week equivalent to 614.

After that, Brazil, with total deaths equivalent to 51,827  (UK), and daily deaths last week equivalent to 106, now just ahead of their lockdown loving neighbours Peru, and with a much lower overall death rate.

Third lowest out of these seven is the "world beating" UK, with 48,888 total (to Saturday, the others are to Sunday) and 387 deaths/day last week - still a long way to 4,000 then.

In second place is France with total deaths equivalent to 42,099 in the UK, and daily deaths last week equivalent to 509/day.

The winners, once again, are Sweden, with total deaths equivalent to 40,480 in the UK, and deaths equivalent to 81/day. Sweden has apparently finally seen a significant increase in daily deaths, although is still doing better than the other countries I've been tracking, and certainly better than the countries that locked down too hard and too long.

Globally, total deaths are at a far lower ifr rate, equivalent to 10977 UK deaths, and 69/day, compared to 59/day last week, another significant increase, but not huge.
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 COVID-19 and associated discussion