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September 28, 2020, 10:06:10 PM
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www.altyfans.co.uk  |  General Category  |  Non Altrincham FC Talk  |  COVID-19 and associated discussion « previous next »
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Author Topic: COVID-19 and associated discussion  (Read 420 times)
admin
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« on: September 14, 2020, 04:09:05 PM »

Please use this thread
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Steve from Sale
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« Reply #1 on: September 14, 2020, 08:51:30 PM »

That was the thread I used sorry,as instructed, not the other ones relating to other news items.

Sorry if I have done something wrong!
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Hugh
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« Reply #2 on: September 14, 2020, 11:23:45 PM »

hmm, I can see problems arising when someone has a basically football related post but the current restrictions come into it. Where do you draw the line?  And if you start out with "good" intentions but get sidetracked?

Anyway, worth a try I suppose. Be interesting to see what actually happens...

And I notice the last post on this section before this thread was in May! The off topic section seems to work reasonably well on the Chester forum, but for whatever reason, the non-first team sections seem barely used on here. Anything that can be done?
« Last Edit: September 14, 2020, 11:27:20 PM by Hugh » Logged
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« Reply #3 on: September 17, 2020, 12:54:37 AM »

Well I don't know if I'm talking to myself here but anyway (perhaps that was the idea  Smiley )

Another 20 deaths today, and I can see weekly deaths going up to maybe 3 or 400 in an Autumn ripple due to delayed herd immunity, 500 tops and briefly (or about 5 per cent of the 1918 death rate from Spanish flu), and I can see the government panicking long before then and even more disruption. 1000 fans on October 3rd? Don't hold your breath!

How many posts before someone else posts, I wonder(assuming I keep posting!)? 20/ 30? any number? I wonder how Chester did it?
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Hugh
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« Reply #4 on: September 17, 2020, 12:57:27 AM »

It just occurred to me that the "associated discussion" is mainly football. Well done admin Wink Nah only joking, I know it's a hard job - you're damned if you do, damned if you don't sometimes.

Here's two of the thirty posts anyway, goodnight.
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Hugh
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« Reply #5 on: September 17, 2020, 09:34:37 PM »

I see in Sweden care homes will be open from October 1st. Sadly in this country I doubt I'll be able to spend Christmas with "Granny". Disgrace. Sweden also has the lowest cases/100,000 in Europe  and falling, as one might ext. Would love to know what the authorities do about, like, evidence and all that (and when they're having their fact finding mission to Sweden).

Well, this page could make an interesting virtual diary if nothing else!
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« Reply #6 on: September 18, 2020, 11:31:09 AM »

I'll join in with some COVID stuff, given I'm one of those who demanded your exile!

I see Connah's Quay manager and noted maniac Andy Morrison has bent the rules with regards pandemic protocols. What's your take, Hugh?

https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/54199351
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« Reply #7 on: September 18, 2020, 10:06:12 PM »

Well, thank you for the exile, and welcome to the diary!  Smiley

Well, I see my bluff has been called, so here goes., in general terms I would say -

Whilst I don't know anything about Andy Morrison and his maniacal tendencies (though I seem to remember another Andy, Andy Green, who might merit that description!), in general terms I would say

It seems to me that the FAW are wise to call for the full facts before commenting, but in general terms.

1) Rules should be applied evenly to all teams. Whatever one might think of the particular rules put into place, if Connah's Quay or whoever have broken the rules, they should be dealt with appropriately, and I said about Brackley that it was a nonsense that they were able to have their fans singing "at" the Gateshead playoff when other clubs weren't.

2) I'm afraid I can't remember the second point if indeed there was one! (I deleted my text by mistake and had to rewrite it from memory)

3)People who test positive should be able to have a second test within two days or as soon as possible if it is going to affect them seriously, this should be by an independent laboratory, and this is because, as I understand it, there is a significant risk of false positives with these tests, and the same conditions which caused the first false positive may be still present at the same laboratory for a second test.

4) There seem to be rather a lot of symptoms, including, if I remember rightly, actual bedwetting. The headaches and upset stomach may of course be down to pre match nerves, though with some of their team having tested positive, it would seem perhaps rather self serving for their manager to claim that this theory must be right, although I would want to get all the facts about no player showing a temperature or "answering" that they displayed any symptoms. If they "answered", possibly disingenuously or through ignorance, that they displayed no symptoms, and if noone in authority noticed any symptoms, they could, of course, have got away with one, although if the symptoms are not serious enough to notice, then how serious is it?
In general terms, if someone is with this bug but asymptomatic, there is a very small chance of them passing it on, and when they do pass it on, it would almost certainly be to someone who they were in prolonged close contact with , indoors. And very few healthy people below a certain age die from it. So the risk was likely negligible, however they may have technically broken a rule, which is a matter for UEFA and their cup etc. once the full facts have been established.
5) What a cheek a Conservative party politician has coming over all furious about it after infectious people from hospitals were put back into care homes without testing under a Conservative government. Not that I want to get into politics, you understand, but just on this specific point.

Well, it was certainly an interesting story, which gave me plenty to think about, and may I respond with a question of my own - with the sad demise of Bury, Droylsden, Belle Vue and (arguably!) Macc in the last year, how many senior sports clubs do you expect to go under in the next year, and particularly in the North West, and considering that Droylsden, Belle Vue and Nantwich (had to releaseall their players) have been directly affected by the current situation (which may of course get worse, judging by the poll on the new season)?
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« Reply #8 on: September 19, 2020, 10:26:20 AM »

Oh, it's going to be absolute carnage, no doubt. I think the non league football landscape is going to change hugely in the coming 12 months. It gets worse the lower down you go though. The Counties have already lost two teams, FC Oswestry and Shelley and I expect there'll be many moire to come. There's certain things that can be done, streaming games etc, which have the potential to mitigate the losses. The lower down you go, the harder that gets though.

By the way, who do you mean by Belle Vue? There was never a club by that name?
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« Reply #9 on: September 19, 2020, 04:51:52 PM »

I was referring to Belle Vue greyhounds, they had to close recently. I understand the speedway went some time ago - I was asking about all sports. I don't particularly knowwhat's going on in other sports, but I happened to read about Belle Vue (the MEN I think) and they were a striking local example at a prominent venue. Still, if it's bad for football, I dare say it's bad for other sports.

I wonder if they'll keep the current structure for the National league, or even go ahead with the step 4 extra division. They might have trouble filling the places at steps 5 and 6. A pity if so, I thhink the planned changes could have been a platform for Northern League teams to finally progress up the pyramid.
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RageAgainstTheFirstTeam
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« Reply #10 on: September 20, 2020, 10:13:36 PM »

Well, the greyhounds demise was sped up by COVID, but the dog track was already scheduled for demolition so they were finished anyway. The speedway are fine by the way, they're playing fixtures (if that's the right term) in the shiny new stadium next door.
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« Reply #11 on: September 20, 2020, 11:24:07 PM »

Glad the speedway are ok, would have been a shame to lose the site completely.

One would assume there's not much left of greyhound racing now with multiple London sites also closing - unless they simply use different venues.

Didn't Winsford used to have something of the sort?
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« Reply #12 on: September 20, 2020, 11:57:37 PM »

Right, it's the end of the week, it's the "that political bug" section, so I guess I should say something on recent developments.

Firstly, on places I've been tracking.

Globally, there was an average of 5307 deaths/day over the last week, compared to 5757/day for the week before, and 5291/day the week before that, so pretty much stable - though how reliable the reported figures are is another matter - just look at Belarus!
Lockdown fanatics Peru have recorded 111 deaths/day, down from 129/day last week, from a population of 33m.
France saw 675 deaths, compared to 304 the week before, and 95 the week before that, so I may have to revise up my prediction of 500/week maximum for the UK slightly!
Brazil saw 5259 reported deaths last week, compared to 5008 the week before, and 5759 the previous week, so apparently fairly stable, and with a death rate marginally higher than the UK, though I suspect the diverse geography of such a large country could complicate things.
Our friends in Sweden were up 19 (approx equivalent to 128 in the UK), compared to 11 the week before, and 14 the week before that, though I hesitate to claim any trend in such small numbers.
Here in the UK, the figure for last week (Sun to Sat) was 163, compared to 74 the week before.

Well, what I will say with some certainty is that we will not see UK deaths increasing 3 fold per week over the next few weeks as in March when deaths rose from 14 on the 14th to 980 (reported) on Good Friday.
And that I know which of those countries I'd want to live in - Sweden!

Well, I'll be adding Belgium (9944 deaths) and Spain (30495 deaths) to my watch list and hope to update further in the future. Feel free to disagree - or leave me to write my own script. To the tumbleweed! Anyway, here are the bare facts, and people can draw their own conclusions.

Edit:France is now reading 31285 total deaths instead of 31585 as previously, ie 375 further deaths last week if this is right.

Even Whitty etc. are predicting "over 200 uk deaths/day" in November, or one fifth of April - let's see how this prediction holds up compared to others (1/2m deaths, Sweden will be a disaster etc.). We are locking down again for this?!
« Last Edit: September 21, 2020, 11:56:33 PM by Hugh » Logged
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« Reply #13 on: September 25, 2020, 08:37:34 PM »

So I am confused.How many deaths a day is acceptable? I don't have an answer to this but I'm aware of how many people a day die on the roads without us banning cars
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« Reply #14 on: Yesterday at 10:50:54 PM »

To get perspective you need to look at comparisons:

1% of deaths are with C19
In August C19 was the 24th most fatal illness/disease
More people are dying of flu/pneumonia
There is an average 1500-16-- deaths per day, C19 is involved in 25-30 of them
An increase in deaths with any respiratory disease is normal for this time of year
Several studies have estimated more deaths from the resu;ts of the lockdown than with C19 - at least 75,000, with an unnamed govt source suggesting 125k

SAGE said at the start of this that you cannot get rid of the virus; it is here to stay. All lockdowns do is increase the duration of this.

American studies have found you have over a 99.9% chance of survival IF you get the virus
Even Raab has said there is a 93% false positive rate, supporting American studies and the research iof such As Sunetra Gupta and the Oxford Uni Centre for Evidence based Medicine (I emphasize EVIDENCE!)

At the start of this we were advised tyou had to be in close contact, inside for a min 15mins to have a chance of catching this - we have since not been told otherwise.

Its all about perspective!
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