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 COVID-19 and associated discussion
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Author Topic: COVID-19 and associated discussion  (Read 27123 times)

Hugh

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Re: COVID-19 and associated discussion
« Reply #15 on: September 28, 2020, 01:36:55 AM »

Apparently there was a radio interview with Raab where he appeared surprised when told that the number of c.v. deaths for healthy people under 60 was 307! Quite a large per centage of the population presumably.

Funnily enough in my student days (as a cyclist angry at the behaviour of some motorists) I was somewhat in favour of banning cars, and limiting motor vehicles to about 8mph! So I understand how people can lose sight of the bigger picture when focusing too narrowly on on issue.

I hope to provide a fuller update tomorrow, and hope that things have sorted themselves out on the first team section, and that no one thought I was having a go at the ladies team or Brian Flynn - I haven't checked yet!
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Hugh

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Re: COVID-19 and associated discussion
« Reply #16 on: September 28, 2020, 11:55:05 PM »

A day late with my update this week, but I will follow a similar format - the Sunday to Saturday deaths for the UK, and the increase from last Sunday to this Sunday for other countries( as they may not update daily in the same way). I will also give what their daily death rate would be equivalent to in the UK (ie adjusted for population)

Just briefly, the idea of this is to try and get an idea of what approaches work, and where we might be headed, as well as give a bit of balance to some of the fear-mongering from the government and media (and many people are genuinely scared) . In answer to Cheshire Cat, I would put it the other way round - how many deaths (or cases if you're New Zealand) justify serious curtailing of basic freedoms (including a possible unprecedented peacetime cancellation of the season)? As JD pointed out, there is quite serious collateral damage from lockdowns, and they really should have historians and economists on Sage to enable a more balanced, holistic approach.

This week, I will start with the UK figures.

The UK saw 212 deaths reported last week, or 30/day, compared to 163 last week and 74 the week before that, so a slowing rate of increase. Just to give an idea of the "steep upward curve" we are on, here are the figures for the last 11 days, starting with Friday the 18th:
Friday - 27; Saturday - 54; Sunday - 18; Monday - 11; Tuesday - 37; Wednesday - 37; Thursday - 40; Friday - 34;Saturday - 35; Sunday - 17; Monday - 13.
It is worth pointing out also in the wake of the appalling scenes of uni freshers in Manchester who are virtual prisoners in their cramped accommodation, that' last I heard, only 3 people in the 15-18 age group (who were all seriously ill) have died of this cv, and no teachers are reported to have died from being infected by their pupils. Is this acceptable?

Global deaths were 5367/day, equivalent to 47/day in the UK. This is a marginal increase on last week, and similar to previous weeks, so clearly not spiralling out of control.

Next we move on to lockdown fanatics Peru, with 893 deaths last week, equivalent to 262/day in the UK. Whatever they're doing, it's not working!

Let's compare them to their more laissez-faire neighbours Brazil. They have had 749 deaths/day, equivalent to 239/day in the UK. So still high, but less than Peru, who would appear to be gaining little benefit from their draconian and ruinously expensive measures.

Moving on to Europe now, and a look at where we are allegedly headed. France saw 442 deaths, equivalent to 66/day in the UK. This represents a modest increase on their 375 deaths for the previous week, and 304 the week before that - a slowing rate of increase.

Spain, which had a particularly strict lockdown, suffered 737 deaths last week, equivalent to 153/day in the UK. So even lockdown idiots Spain are some way short of "over 200 deaths per day" at the moment, and are said to be already peaking.

Next on to two European countries with contrasting approaches but similar populations. Firstly Belgium, perhaps the most fanatical of lockdown zealots in Europe, saw 30 deaths total for the week,
equivalent to 25/day in the UK.

And finally, our friends in "disaster zone" Sweden, who sailed on serenely with 15 deaths, equivalent to 14/day in the UK - ie the number of deaths reported at the time South Shields played FC United in front of over 3,000, which therefore appears to be an acceptable number, at any rate to the authorities!

So, it would appear from thiese official figures that there are no great benefits from draconian lockdown restrictions, and the "over 200 deaths per day" for the UK may not be reached.

What I particularly want from the authorities is a clear idea of their end game, and when that might be reached. What we can say for certain is that if countries like New Zealand were to maintain a minimal number of cases, it would mean shutting themselves off from other countries which have many more cases, a dsurely unsustainable approach.

And if we were to listen to economists and historians, they could surely paint as scary a picture or worse than professor pantsdown - after all, we know what happened with the depression of the 1930's, and after the 2008 financial crisis. Crashing the economy never ends well!
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Hugh

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Re: COVID-19 and associated discussion
« Reply #17 on: October 05, 2020, 09:30:55 PM »

Last week the UK saw an average of 49 cv deaths/day reported, and an average weekly increase of about one and two thirds since weekly deaths moved over 100, compared to a near 3 fold increase per week in March to April. Total deaths last week were 346, still some way below my prediction of 500/week peak, so it is still not clear if the government's prediction of over 1400/week will prove more accurate. Still, it seems  likely that deaths will not start to fall significantly until November, and take some time after that to get to low levels. They may be just about low enough for the authorities to "save" Christmas. I was right about one thing, anyway, that the government panicked well before 500 deaths/week.

France and Spain are said to be ahead of us, so let's look at where they are to see where we might be going.

Spain reported an average of 122 deaths/day last weekequivalent to 177/day in the UK compared to 105 deaths/day last week, suggesting it is levelling off. Indeed, it has been claimed that deaths have already peaked in Spain, so we will see if this translates into a decrease in deaths over the next few weeks.

France meanwhile reported 72 deaths/day, equivalent to 75 deaths/day in the UK, compared to 63 deaths/day last week, so they also appear to be levelling off.

Moving on to "disaster zone" Sweden, they had exactly the same deaths as last week, equivalent to 14/day in the UK. Still, maybe they will see a huge surge next week, or next month, or perhaps next year. Maybe.

Lockdown idiots Belgium saw a big increase to 10 deaths/day, equivalent to 58/day in the UK, and quite a lot more than Sweden.

Brazil had 4576 reported deaths last week, compared to 5244 the week before. Average daily deaths equivalent to 209 in the UK

Reported Peru deaths were well down and equivalent to 118/day in the UK. However their total death rate is still much worse than Brazil's.

Global deaths were an average of 5,601/day, equivalent to 49/day in the UK, and coincidentally the same as the UK daily average. This was slightly up on last week, but within the range of the previous 3 weeks, so no exponential growth, and I expect some sort of global herd immunity in the next few months.
« Last Edit: November 07, 2020, 07:32:15 PM by Hugh »
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Hugh

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Re: COVID-19 and associated discussion
« Reply #18 on: October 13, 2020, 01:13:03 AM »

Right, I'll start with the good news. Spain and France both saw a decrease in deaths. If that is where we're headed, hopefully the UK will peak soon, and in fact, UK deaths  and infections have been levelling off, and deaths in London appear to have already peaked. I would expect the UK to peak certainly within the next four weeks, and quite possibly within a week or two, and should peak a long way below the 200 deaths/day the authorities were warning of, though probably a bit over my own prediction of 500 deaths max in a week. Then it's a question of how quickly deaths (hopefully) come down to a level where the authorities end these damaging restrictions on watching our first team etc.

Onto the places I've been tracking, and I'll start with the country of the moment, lockdown zealots Spain. Having risen to 854 deaths last week from 737 the week before, it was down slightly to 843 this week. Significantly, this was before new restrictions in Madrid could have influenced things.This is equivalent to 175 deaths/day in the UK..

France also fell slightly to 500 deaths for the week compared to 503 the week before. Their daily deaths last week wereequivalent to 74/day in the UK. However their deaths have been up and down a bit, and actually recorded their highest deaths 2 weeks before that (675 in that week) so it remains to be seen how quickly passing a peak translates into a big drop in deaths.

Onto our friends in Sweden where they actually saw a reduction in their total deaths of one! No there's been no resurrection, what appears to have happened is that the figure was adjusted down three (similar to what happened in the UK though on a smaller scale), after which two deaths were recorded. It's safe to say that deaths remain very low at any rate in Europe's "disaster zone". Because there has been no significant increase with the colder weather in Sweden so far, I tend to think that it will not be a significant factor in the Uk, so hopefully we will see a significant drop over the next few months as was the case earlier this year, hopefully in time to allow us to see the Stockport match.

Lockdown nutters Belgium, on the other hand, saw a substantial increase to 131 deaths for the week (compared to 70 last week), equivalent to 110 deaths/day in the UK.

Here in the UK, (Sunday to Saturday), there were 443 deaths for the week, still below my 500 prediction but quite enough for the authorities to panic, as I also predicted! This equals 64 deaths/day, still a long way short of the 200 we were promised, and an increase of 28% on the week before, compared to an average increase of about one and two thirds in the three weeks prior to that, so hopefully levelling off.

In Brazil (where they have a lower total overall death rate than lockdown idiots Peru), deaths were down to their lowest for a while at 591/day, equivalent to 189/day in the UK. Given the size and nature of Brazil, I suspect that some areas of the country little affected previously are now experiencing a first wave.

Meanwhile, Peru themselves saw 558 deaths last week, equivalent to 164 deaths/ day in the UK. This was an increase from the previous week's total of 403 but well down from where they were 5 weeks ago with 1080 deaths.

Globally, things remain stable, with last weeks total of 38,915 - equivalent to 49/day in the UK -slightly down on the previous week when it was 39,207 and remaining within the range, in the 6 weeks I've been tracking it, of 37,038 to 40,300.

It is worth repeating that the average age of people who die from cv is very high - apparently 82 now - and a large majority have preexisting health problems (as in "old sick people die after catching bug, shock horror, who would have thought it, hold the front page), that many more children will die from government lockdowns than will be saved (constituting in my view crimes against humanity), and that the side effects of lockdowns, including a massive increase in global poverty and child malnutrition, are horrendous.
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Hugh

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Re: COVID-19 and associated discussion
« Reply #19 on: October 16, 2020, 09:19:44 PM »

Sadly it appears, according to a mainstream national newspaper, that the authorities have told care homes (whose residents include Grandma) that they will need to make room for cv patients who've been discharged from hospital. One might reasonably wonder what they have against the elderly. I have long suspected that they would try and do "something" about the aging population, but it is still profoundly shocking to see it in action for real. This is (morally at least) criminal, and this is the second time this year. Enough!!!
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finnquark1

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Re: COVID-19 and associated discussion
« Reply #20 on: October 17, 2020, 09:26:58 AM »

Sadly it appears, according to a mainstream national newspaper, that the authorities have told care homes (whose residents include Grandma) that they will need to make room for cv patients who've been discharged from hospital. One might reasonably wonder what they have against the elderly. I have long suspected that they would try and do "something" about the aging population, but it is still profoundly shocking to see it in action for real. This is (morally at least) criminal, and this is the second time this year. Enough!!!

They're just "old sick people (who) die after catching bug, shock horror, who would have thought it, hold the front page".
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cheshire cat

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Re: COVID-19 and associated discussion
« Reply #21 on: October 17, 2020, 11:52:52 PM »

It looks like your 500 deaths a week is going to be exceeded this week.
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Hugh

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Re: COVID-19 and associated discussion
« Reply #22 on: October 18, 2020, 12:09:06 AM »

Yes indeed, and it would be reassuring (and somewhat surprising) to know that the authorities were bang on with their predictions. Still expect it to be less than, rather than more than, their predicted 200 cv deaths/day (implying 1400 in a week) - which would still be quite a lot less than the 1000 plus per day we had one week in April - unless it reaches 900 more than 200/day of course!. Hope to update further next week... (I'm talking real time of course, not made up BST!)
« Last Edit: October 18, 2020, 12:12:55 AM by Hugh »
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Hugh

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Re: COVID-19 and associated discussion
« Reply #23 on: October 18, 2020, 12:55:28 AM »

Sadly it appears, according to a mainstream national newspaper, that the authorities have told care homes (whose residents include Grandma) that they will need to make room for cv patients who've been discharged from hospital. One might reasonably wonder what they have against the elderly. I have long suspected that they would try and do "something" about the aging population, but it is still profoundly shocking to see it in action for real. This is (morally at least) criminal, and this is the second time this year. Enough!!!

They're just "old sick people (who) die after catching bug, shock horror, who would have thought it, hold the front page".

Ah, I see what you're getting at. Like I say, women and children first is what they used to say. Adults should be prepared to put themselves at risk to save children. The point is not that old people don't matter, they absolutely do, I am 100 per cent against euthanasia, and there are good reasons why it as been repeatedly rejected by the authorities. The point is, that over 100,000 children are predicted to starve to death because of government lockdowns, compared to a tiny number who will die from cv; that the cuts (that inevitably follow) from crashing the economy kill quite a lot of people, according to main stream politicians, and, worldwide, inevitably lead to wars and starvation (think the 1930's, or the "Arab spring" after 2008 for a start). Our policy is protection of the most vulnerable groups. Placing infectious people from hospitals into care homes (whilst at the same time putting hugely damaging restrictions on healthy people) is the exact opposite of this. Instead, sack off lockdowns, use the money saved to keep the most vulnerable safe so far as reasonably possible (whilst allowing them to see their loved ones if they wish - people should not be forced to die alone without close family, and should be free to take their own risks)

There are good reasons why human rights have not been so comprehensively trashed before, and questions to be asked why there are shortages of intensive care beds when there are so many more in other European countries and months to prepare since April.

I suppose we are going to get a stage three lockdown thing in "Greater Manchester" next week, quite possibly about the time that cv deaths peak. And I suppose the authorities will claim it was their measures that made all the difference. I seem to remember that cv infections had peaked before the March lockdown...
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Hugh

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Re: COVID-19 and associated discussion
« Reply #24 on: October 20, 2020, 01:05:38 AM »

This week, I'll start with the local situation before getting into the latest stats.

A (formerly) local publication has decided to betray the people of the region, publishing a document suggesting that the hospitals of the "Greater Manchester" region were set to run out of critical care beds, with 82% being used by Friday. It turns out that at the end of October last year (according to the NHS) 83.6% were being used. Furthermore, "cases in Manchester peaked on the 30th of September, with the seven day average having subsequently fallen 20% (although they have apparently risen slightly across the GM region). The sellouts at this publication have shamefully put pressure on local authorities to agree to an increased period of increased restrictions just when "cases" appear to be peaking.

On to the latest weekly figures, and it is now clear that my prediction of 500 deaths per week has been exceeded by some margin. I was of course working on the assumption that we were headed for (as the authorities told us) where France was (about 300 cv deaths/week at the time), and that this "Autumn ripple" would see far fewer deaths than in April, and indeed, arguments can still be made to a degree for both these assumptions. This prediction was in contrast to the well publicised prediction of the authorities of 200 deaths/day by November. My current working theory is that UK deaths will peak towards the end of this week. Further substantial increases this week (and based on the trends of previous weeks, I am assuming an increase of about 30% (tallying in fact with what we have seen for the total so far this week) would actually see the authorities with all their expertise closer than my prediction! If increases continue next week, the authorities may actually be right - although if deaths continue to increase after that, we would probably both have underestimated the actual rate.

I should provide the basis for my assumption that deaths will peak this week. Firstly, global deaths have remained stable in the seven weeks I've been tracking them, suggesting that deaths get to a certain level and fall back, rather than continuing to increase. Secondly, a peak this week would reflect the period of increasing deaths in March and April. Third, all the places outside the UK I've been tracking have seen decreases in recent weeks (with the exception of lockdown nutters Belgium).

It might be useful to give a bit of context for these predictions by considering other predictions that have been made. Firstly, and most notoriously, professor pantsdown telling us that we faced up to half a million deaths without any intervention - even though no one was proposing doing nothing. Of course, infections had already peaked by March the 23rd, so I assume that even with more limited, or indeed no intervention, it would have been wrong. I assume the closest to doing nothing was Belarus, and I'm pretty sure they haven't seen deaths anywhere near that rate, even if the official figures for that country do turn out to be understated. Then there's of course the 200 deaths per day prediction which will either be proved right or wrong in the next couple of weeks, but could still be an overestimate - but not as much as the imperial college one of course! We were previously told that we were headed for where France is headed. Our death rate has recently been slightly higher than France (but still in the ball park), and, as France has seen decreases in deaths in some recent weeks, if we are really headed where France is, we  can reasonably expect the same soon. The only prediction I can recall re. cv (though there are probably others) was a prediction of a vaccine for February or March (I think). It was claimed "today" that there would be no vaccine until Spring, so this could mean more or less correct, we will see - although it may be some time after a vaccine first becomes available before it changes much, and of course it may be of limited effects - if it was that easy, other bugs that come around every year would have  been dealt with.
And finally, a solution I could have suggested months ago and which it appears the authorities are finally looking into - that it is probably quite a good idea to take plenty of vitamin D3. Seems they're more interested in pushing vaccines and drugs for their mates in big pharma, at the cost of thousands of lives - or am I being too cynical?
Probably not - my lockdown notes from 16th April referring to those daily tv briefings read - " '5 tests' - heard that somewhere before! 'The way out of this is vaccines and...drugs'. no [orthomolecular] nutritional therapy then - disgrace!" Strewth, if it had been left to them, sailors would still be getting scurvy today!

On to this weeks figures, and it's a bit of a mixed bag, but I'll start with a summary of what good news there is. Global cv deaths were down for a second week in a row, and Brazil was down to its lowest deaths in the seven weeks I've been following it.

I'll start with the global figures then. There were 37,934 cv deaths reported globally in the last 7 days, or 5,419/day,equivalent to 47/day in the UK Previous weeks' totals, working back from last week are as follows: 38,915; 39,207; 37,568; 37,148; 40,300; 37,038.  So no clear downward trend, as the virus continues to work its way through the global population, but also no sign of an exponential rise. Incidentally, extrapolated to the UK population, this per centage of daily deaths would equate to 17,167 in a year, hardly in the territory of panic measures.

On to the next place I mentioned, Brazil, which saw 3,417 deaths last week, equivalent to 156/day in the UK. Previous weeks - 4,136; 4,576; 5,244; 5,258; 5,008; 5,759. So still high, but appears to be edging down, and still a lower overall death rate than lockdown fanatics Peru of course!

Peru themselves reported 479 deaths last week, equivalent to 141/day in the UK.. Previous weeks - 558; 403; 893; 776; 906; 1,080. So a significant drop from their peak, but current weekly death rate still only marginally lower than Brazil.

Moving on to the UK before comparing us to other European countries. Sunday to Saturday, there were 841 deaths reported (or 141/day), meaning there needs to be an increase of 110 this week (or 12%) for the authorities' prediction of 200 deaths per day to beat my own prediction of 500 in a week (or 71/day), or 559 for their prediction to be matched.

Our friends in Sweden obviously saw an increase on their minus one deaths last week, to 24 this week, equivalent to 23/day in the UK. Before last week, the figures were - 15, 15, 19, 11, 14. So this week was 5 above the highest since Istarted tracking them, not enough to draw too many conclusions, and may indeed be related to the low number reported the week before (-1), but nonetheless, something to keep an eye on.

Bad news from France as well, which reported747 deaths last week, equivalent to 111/day in the UK. Not a huge increase from their Autumn peak, but nonetheless well up from the week before. Previous weeks figures - 500, 503, 442, 675, 304, 95. So it remains to be seen how quickly numbers can come down after levelling off...

Spain reported 846 deaths, marginally up from the previous week, and equivalent to 176/day in the UK. Previous weeks - 843, 834, 737. So again looking more like a levelling off than a peak and trough.

Finally, lockdown idiots Belgium, who reported 217 deaths last week, continuing their upward trend, and equivalent to 182/day in the UK. Previous weeks' totals - 131, 70, 30.

So it remains the case that none of the European countries I have been tracking have seen an Autumn death equivalent to over 200 in the UK, and I remain hopeful that we can peak well below this level, though obviously 200/day (or more) can't be completely ruled out. I think April levels can though.

I should also say that I suspect that coming in and out of lockdowns is similar (and approximately equivalent) to yoyo dieting - ie you gain weight. Trying to suppress a virus, it would appear, simply prolongs things, and means that people do not have a chance to build up their immune systems so much as a result of decreased contact with germs, and are thus less well equipped to fight off infections when restrictions are eased. And with herd immunity delayed and the lower risk Summer months wasted when tis might have been achieved with decfreased risk, it seems that lockdown obsessed countries may see higher deaths overall. Why else are there such high deaths in Belgium and Peru? Answers on a post card.

And New Zealand and China can't close their borders to the rest of the world forever can they? They will surely have to bite the bullet sooner or later.
« Last Edit: October 20, 2020, 02:38:01 AM by Hugh »
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Hugh

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Re: COVID-19 and associated discussion
« Reply #25 on: October 23, 2020, 12:42:18 AM »

GM's hospitals "very far from being overwhelmed".

As barmy new restrictions come into force today, it'll be interesting to see if this business does peak around now.

I've no problem with my predictions being held to account, I just hope that people are watching some of these other predictions as well!

I hear someone called David Rose has provided some perspective on this lockdown madness.
« Last Edit: October 23, 2020, 12:45:56 AM by Hugh »
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cheshire cat

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Re: COVID-19 and associated discussion
« Reply #26 on: October 23, 2020, 11:02:58 PM »

I'm not expecting the new restrictions to make a massive difference. The figures started rising in mid September. Pubs have been open since early July.

I think its more likely to be spreading in schools rather than pubs. The government doesn't want to close schools rightly in my opinion because it has little effect on the kids themselves but they are going to take it home. .

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Hugh

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Re: COVID-19 and associated discussion
« Reply #27 on: October 24, 2020, 09:21:06 PM »

Danish mask study refused publication by medical journals!

Looks like we'll have to wait and see if it tells pro-maskers what they want to hear. Whatever the truth of the  matter - and naturally we have our suspicions - I hope that if people learn nothing else from this lockdown malarkey (not to be confused with Mullarkey who is much better), they learn that there is no such thing as "the science". Apart from repeatable laboratory experiments and the like, scientists will have different opinions on matters relating to their field, money and politics will be an issue etc. Anyone too convinced about popular scientific opinion or non-scientific computer modelling should take a look at the "science" in an encyclopaedia from 1906 - quite an eye opener, I assure you!

Meanwhile, our friends in "disaster zone" Sweden are removing restrictions on over seventies (who have "suffered enough") - in the name of public health! Deaths remain low in the country, although to be fair, they're not very high here, with cv deaths currently less than one sixth the level of the worst week in April, and hospitalizations for all respiratory diseases in October within the normal bounds for the time of year.
« Last Edit: October 24, 2020, 09:32:38 PM by Hugh »
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Hugh

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Re: COVID-19 and associated discussion
« Reply #28 on: October 24, 2020, 09:54:39 PM »



I think its more likely to be spreading in schools rather than pubs. The government doesn't want to close schools rightly in my opinion because it has little effect on the kids themselves but they are going to take it home. .


Patients under investigation for cv in the North West "dropped considerably" in the week to October 18th. (the Royal College of General Practitioners) - before "tier three restrictions"!

As for schools, my understanding is that no teacher has died from cv after catching it from her pupils. In any case, when I went to see my friend in Wales, who is n a vulnerable group, she had been seeing her grandchildren in the garden rather than having them inside, and I dare say other vulnerable people are making similar decisions. Either way, I can't imagine households remaining couped up at home together for large amounts of time is going to help.

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cheshire cat

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Re: COVID-19 and associated discussion
« Reply #29 on: October 24, 2020, 11:55:54 PM »

A lot of kids are picked up from school by their grandparents and then driven home. Stand outside any primary school and you can see it for yourself.
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 COVID-19 and associated discussion