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PLEASE JOIN THE ALTRINCHAM FC PATRONS SCHEME TODAY
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+ Altyfans.co.uk - Altrincham Football Club Fans Forum » General Category » Non Altrincham FC Talk
 COVID-19 and associated discussion
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Author Topic: COVID-19 and associated discussion  (Read 6313 times)

Hugh

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Re: COVID-19 and associated discussion
« Reply #75 on: January 03, 2021, 11:22:36 PM »

South Dakota's death rate is currently 50% higher than ours and that's in a very sparsely populated state. Carry on as normal won't win an election even if it is four years away

Meanwhile the number of cases needing hosital treatment for Covid is due to rocket. Whether they get it or not remains to be seen. That doesn't mean I think it is acceptable for other people with serious conditions to lose out.

The government is reacting to the figures. The figures are provided by the public.

The coverage provided by Alty TV is good enough for me for the time being.

I thought the figures were provided by counting the number of deaths within 28 days of a positive (mostly pcr) test result, that is, differently to respiratory deaths in all previous years. This means that "cv" deaths are overstated - some will be deaths where it wasn't the main cause, others will have had nothing  to do with cv at all. The only question is how many, whether you believe the information I heard that the true number is less than half the daily official figures, or think it is nearer to the figures given (and I when recently reading a pre-March piece on Spanish flu, what struck me was how widely estimates of deaths varied, from (as I remember) 25m up to 100m). At any rate, if the official figures are anywhere near correct, it must be a very very clever virus as it has apparently managed to reduce deaths due to a number of other common illnesses this year.

So far as I can tell, the problem in  hospitals is largely due to testing healthy staff for cv, something which I understand is never normally done with these respiratory diseases, and which as far as I'm concerned should stop at once  - far more dangerous to deprive the nhs of workers who are not actually showing symptoms of cv. asymptomatic transmission seems to be vanishingly rare, and something that was primarily promoted by China (and by extension the CCP).

It should also be noted that Finland, previously noted for its low IFR, has been adding vitamin D to basic foods - absolutely something that should be done here (the recent rigged test - which used far too low a dose -notwithstanding, and as long as people can opt out).

I now await the total excess deaths for the year - some of which will have of course been caused by lockdowns and people not accessing  vital treatment because of them or simply through fear of going to hospitals.

ps Alty tv has been rather good lately hasn't it - and Stockport tv yesterday!

« Last Edit: January 03, 2021, 11:47:01 PM by Hugh »
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Hugh

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Re: COVID-19 and associated discussion
« Reply #76 on: January 03, 2021, 11:25:53 PM »

Every cloud............... Edgeley Park without any supporters might not be so bad. Is Hugh OK?
Yes, I've not snuffed it from cv quite yet, just tired from work and things.  Vit D and other supplements appear to be doing the job so far but it's early days.

I'd rather be at Edgely Park though! Be nice to see Alty take on County a couple of times before they get back into the fl...

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Hugh

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Re: COVID-19 and associated discussion
« Reply #77 on: March 24, 2021, 02:55:52 AM »

As we mark a year of this madness, I return to the subject of the places I've been tracking. Figures from Sunday unless stated otherwise.

I should also say that there is no sign of the European "third wave" from these countries as of yet, with only France, of the countries I am looking at, showing a very marginal increase in deaths compared to the previous week.


Firstly the global deaths, with a lower rate than any place I'm tracking, with 2,727,153 deaths, equivalent to about 23,884 in the UK. This shows how large areas of the world are barely affected by this shamdemic. eg Kenya, typical of Africa, with 2048 deaths in this moment, equivalent to 2551 in the UK. Yet, because of the economic impact of lockdowns and other restrictions worldwide, millions have gone hungry, giraffes are hunted for food, teenage girls have to do "bad things" for food. Easy for fat, well-fed Londoners to shout "conspiracy theorist", but these are serious issues that need debating.

Consider also that 75,000 people in the UK are expected to die long term because of lockdowns. Extrapolate this globally (8.56m) and then add millions more as the UN expects 71m to be pushed into extreme poverty by the global response to cv (ie lockdowns etc.). Many of these will be children - and yet as of September no child aged 28  days to 15 years had died of cv (the BMJ). Lockdowns will clearly  kill more children than they save. Disgusting.

So far as the UK is concerned, even if we take the worst cae scenario - that we would have a death rate 20,000 higher per year than now (the highest I can find currently) with targeted protection instead of our extreme restrictions, even if these restrictions continued for another 2  and 3/4 years saving that many lives, it would still not have saved more than 75,000 lives. For the UK, lockdown is a failure, for the world, it appears genocidal, and we hope to see those culpable judged in the ICC.


Next is Utah, a US state that didn't lock down, with 2,062 deaths, equivalent to 42,344 in the UK. In fact, a chart showing the IFR of all the US states and highlighting those that didn't lock down shows them to be strikingly evenly spread through the chart, rather than all clustered at the high end of the IFR.


Germany comes next, with 75,270 deaths, equivalent to 60,937 in the UK. After being way below other European countries, it is now much closer, calling into question the difference its governments policies may have made.


Then Sweden, with 13,262 deaths, equ8ivalent to 89,148 in the UK. Worse than it was, it is still well below the UK and Belgium (which is closer to Malmo than Helsinki is). What I can say about Sweden is that they had a particularly mild flu season in 2019, a factor inthem having more deaths this year. Even so, their total deaths for 2019 and 2020 combined are still less than total deaths for 2017 and 2018 combined. And as of a report from 9/2/21, Sweden was seeing a similar decrease in "cases" to the UK, despite having less severe restrictions.

As for the rest of Scandinavia, they have lower deaths reported thus far from cv. Treating each in turn, I would say the following:

Denmark - the Oresund region covering parts of east Denmark and southern Sweden contains a fairly homogeneous population, and yet there is little difference in the IFR on the Swedish side and that on the Danish side depite different retrictions according to a report I read some months ago.

The isolated country of Norway locked down early and also had a more severe flu season previous to 2020 than Sweden.

The same can be said of Finland, which, like Norway and Denmark, had a soft lockdown, and at the right time - not too early or too late, and not continuing long into summer. For historical reasons, they are also fearsomely well prepared for any emergency. as well as adding vitamin D to basic foods.

I should also mention Belarus, which has continued with spectators at football throughout, and has an IFR a little higher than Finland's.
See https://off-guardian.org/2020/12/19/how-belarus-exposes-the-lockdown-lie/


Getting towards the higher ones now, and Brazil has 294,042 deaths, equivalent to 93,894 in the UK.. There was less restrictions, or less severe enforcement, than in lockdown fanatic neighbours Peru, and yet their IFR remains lower than them.

France has 92,305 deaths, equivalent to 94,140 in the UK. I also seem to remember that they didn't have the same scale of mass testing as us. Their deaths for the latest week (1876) are marginally more than the week before (1855) but I have my doubts over whether this will turn into a terrifying "third wave".


Next is California, with 57,184, equivalent to about 98,143 in the UK. California is a state which locked down particularly hard.


Florida, a broadly similar state which had much less severe restrictions - and has a much larger proportion of over 65's - has 32,757 deaths, equivalent to about 101,486 in the UK. So about the same as California then. A fat lot of good their restrictions did them. Incidentally there is a report I read this week suggesting that Florida is marginally ahead of California rather than marginally worse. As I say, it is very close.


Lockdown zealots Peru, who are just entering their autumn, have  50,085 deaths, equivalent to about 102,947 in the UK. This is worse than neighbours Brazil, although they are now at a lower IFR than Belgium which is just coming out of winter.


Spain, who locked down hard last year, has 72,910 deaths, equivalent to 106,111 in the UK. Apparently they now have less severe restrictions than previously.


Texas, which had less sever restrictions than most states, has 47,595 deaths, equivalent to about 108,840 in the UK. Admittedly this is more than California, but not by a huge amount.

Last and worst of the nation-states I am tracking is predictably lockdown nuts Belgium (which is closer to Malmo than Helsinki is), with 22,650 deaths, equivalent to about 132,736deaths in the UK.. You could say they are more urbanised, or have a lot of vitamin D deficient people or whatever, but this just emphasises that lockdowns, to the extent that they do make a difference, and disregarding the damage and deaths they cause, are just one among many factors.

With the highest IFR is one of the US states I've been following, South Dakota, with 1,923 deaths, equivalent to about 146,254 deaths in the UK - even worse than Belgium! (10%). I suspect that this could have something to do with their exceptionally cold winters. as they previously had a much lower rate. On the positive side, their employment figures are great.

Well, they say freedom comes at a price, but it seems clear that, both locally and world wide, we would have been better off if we had followed the example of Belarus and continued going to our football matches , or at least followed the recommendations of the Great Barrington Declaration and pursued targeted protection. There seems no doubt that the past year has been a disastrous mistake. And it has 100% killed more children than the GBD would have. That on its own is reason to be angry for those of us who do not gloss over a million third world deaths. Jobs is money, and, as the Labour party used to say when they had a modicum of sense, money saves lives.
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Hugh

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Re: COVID-19 and associated discussion
« Reply #78 on: April 06, 2021, 03:48:33 AM »

A quick note on Sweden's neighbours. Poland (115 miles from Sweden) and Lithuania (120 miles from Sweden) both have a higher infection fatality rate from covid-19 than Sweden. Meanwhile Norway - which eats more mackerel and salmon (both high in vitamin D) than any major European country - and Finland, which adds vitamin D to basic foods, have famously low infection fatality rates. (Both countries also closed their borders early). This tallies with what the Orthomolecular Medicine News Service has been saying ( orthomolecular.org/resources/omns/v16n04.shtml, and which I have repeated here, to take 2000 International Units of vitamin D per day (as well as lots of vitamin C, magnesium, selenium, zinc, to increase protection against viruses.

Meanwhile, in Texas (which has a lower infection fatality rate than the UK), there was a packed stadium yesterday for a baseball game!
https://twitter.com/SamGannon87/status/1379164124232437761?s=2=

Perhaps one of these days they will let a few hundred of us into Moss Lane for a National League match - it's been a long time!
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+ Altyfans.co.uk - Altrincham Football Club Fans Forum » General Category » Non Altrincham FC Talk
 COVID-19 and associated discussion