At the moment there's virtually no one in South Trafford with Covid. There are between 0 and 2 cases in Hale, Bowdon, Hale Barns and South Timperley.
OK, there are currently 11 cases in Altrincham East. Thats 11 cases in 10,000 people
The chances of anyone having it inside the ground is miniscule especially given that a whole load more people, me included, will have been vaccinated by then.
The current chance that someone inside the ground would have it, assuming normal size crowds, is actually quite high.
The latest figure for the number of people in the general population who are currently infected is 1 in every 160. The figures you are quoting are just the number of people who've gone for a test in the previous seven days and received a positive result. They omit people, for example, who are asymptomatic and haven't gone for a test or people who received a positive result more than seven days ago but are still infected.
It's too simplistic to say that if 1,600 people were inside Moss Lane then ten of them would have Covid, but that 1:160 rate does at least suggest that it's very likely that a good number of people in a crowd of that size would have Covid.
As it goes, the positive test figures for nearly all the wards around Altrincham are actually above the national average, which suggests the prevalance around Altrincham is actually higher than the 1 in every 160 national average. Either way, if the turnstiles were to open tomorrow, all indications are that there would probably be a good few people with Covid going through them.
That's just on current figures, of course. All the data is going in the right direction (in December the national rate was 1 in 50!) so there's no reason to think that things couldn't be looking a lot brighter by the tail end of the season.
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